The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its prediction for home sales in 2026, citing a slight increase in June home sales compared to the previous month. High oil prices led to inflation and speculation about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, causing fixed mortgage rates to rise earlier this year.
Although these factors have somewhat eased since then, CREA noted that they continued to impact the housing market, along with a faster decline in Canada’s population than anticipated. Consequently, CREA revised its national sales forecast for 2026 slightly downward due to a slow start in the housing market’s anticipated recovery.
Initial projections had suggested a modest uptick in home sales for 2026, but CREA now anticipates a 1.4% decrease compared to 2025. This adjustment marks another downgrade for the 2026 forecast, following a previous revision in April.
Recent data revealed a 0.5% increase in national home sales in June compared to the preceding month, with a 0.9% rise compared to June 2025. Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, highlighted that this uptick continued the positive momentum seen since May, indicating a market that is gradually stabilizing.
The MLS home price index reported a benchmark price of $657,700 for homes in the last month. While prices in Ontario, B.C., and Alberta remained lower, the declines are diminishing, and prices across the country appear to be leveling off.
According to Cathcart, the real estate market is transitioning towards more typical trends, with Ontario and B.C. markets anticipated to see slight improvements by year-end, while regions like the Prairies and Quebec are experiencing a slowdown.
With home prices steadying and interest rates remaining relatively stable, Cathcart believes these conditions may prompt potential buyers to enter the market confidently.