The recent cessation of airstrikes has led to the release of surviving Israeli hostages and the return of hundreds of Palestinians from Israeli prisons. The future of Donald Trump’s Mideast deal remains uncertain, with moments suggesting possible unraveling. Despite the temporary halt in violence, the ceasefire deal does not mark the end of the two-year Gaza war as claimed by Trump.
The agreement, while providing a respite from the intense conflict in the Middle East, only represents a small part of the long-standing and unresolved dispute. The current situation can be described as a “negative peace,” characterized by the absence of violence without addressing the root causes of the conflict.
During his recent visit to the region, Trump briefly acknowledged the historic divisions in the Middle East but emphasized the potential for a new era of reconciliation. He pointed to Israel’s actions against Hezbollah and Iran, the intended disarmament of Hamas, and the Abraham Accords as signs of progress towards a peaceful Middle East.
However, Trump’s deal lacks a clear plan for achieving a lasting settlement between Israelis and Palestinians. While mentioning the possibility of dialogue and cooperation for peaceful coexistence, he avoided discussing a two-state solution, a departure from previous U.S. administrations’ approach.
The exclusion of the two-state solution from Trump’s plan has drawn criticism from many world leaders and countries, including Canada. The future prospects for Palestinian self-determination and statehood hinge on fulfilling the Gaza deal’s requirements, though the specifics remain vague in Trump’s proposal.
The absence of Palestinian representation in the peace plan has raised concerns about its effectiveness in achieving comprehensive regional peace. According to Nader Hashemi, a Middle East politics expert, the current plan is unlikely to lead to lasting peace in the region.
To move towards a positive and lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians, concerted efforts by trusted mediators and intense diplomacy will be crucial. Resolving the deep-rooted differences will require compromises and incentives similar to the successful Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland.
While the recent agreement has halted immediate hostilities, achieving long-term stability and peace in the region will be a complex and challenging process that may take years. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney emphasized the importance of viewing the current deal as a first step towards stability and peace, acknowledging the long road ahead in resolving the decades-old conflict.