A recent study by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce reveals that British Columbia (B.C.) cities would be minimally affected by potential tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump compared to other Canadian cities. While B.C. may not be immune to the repercussions, the chamber’s chief economist, Stephen Tapp, warns that national economic hardships could result from such tariffs.
The analysis, conducted by the Chamber’s Business Data Lab using Statistics Canada data from 41 cities with populations exceeding 100,000, sheds light on the potential vulnerabilities. Although the study primarily focuses on urban areas, it underscores the importance of trade relations with the U.S. for all Canadians.
Kamloops, positioned 253 kilometers northeast of Vancouver, stands out as the second least vulnerable city out of the 41 analyzed in the face of U.S. tariff implementations. With only 2.3% of its GDP attributed to exports to the U.S., Kamloops ranks favorably in terms of resilience.
Economist Ross Hickey from the University of British Columbia (UBC) notes that while Kamloops avoids heavy reliance on U.S. trade, the city may miss out on lucrative opportunities offered by a significant trading partner. Despite potential tariff impacts, Hickey emphasizes the enduring possibilities for economic collaboration with the U.S.
Nanaimo, located southwest of Kamloops on Vancouver Island, follows a similar trend with about 4.1% of its GDP linked to U.S. exports. Victoria, Kelowna, Vancouver, and Chilliwack exhibit lower levels of tariff exposure, while Abbotsford-Mission, situated along the Canada-U.S. border, emerges as the most susceptible B.C. city.
The study highlights the diversification of B.C.’s trade partnerships, particularly with Asian economies, as a key advantage against potential tariff threats. However, concerns persist over past impacts like the escalation of softwood lumber tariffs last year, indicating the province’s vulnerability to trade disputes.
Hickey stresses the need to consider not only how tariffs may affect Canadians but also the potential repercussions of U.S. policies leading to a recession. Recognizing the interconnectedness of economies, he underscores the importance of a stable economic environment for mutual prosperity between trading partners.